Super Tuesday: Predicting This Year's Oscar Nominations

I realize it's weird, but the Oscar nominations announcement has been almost as big an event for me as watching the awards themselves. For decades, it's been a ritual. I make my coffee, sit on the couch, and watch Good Morning America and E! as the news pours in.

As a kid, I used to tape the nominations and watch them when I got home from school. Without the Internet, I never had to worry about anyone spoiling the news. As years went on, my interest only peaked. I used to go into high school late on "announcement day" because movies meant so much more to me than Earth Science did. By college, I'd bring a beat-up Watchman (yes, I'm showing my age) and listened with headphones on in the middle of class.

For years, "announcement day" meant comparing my predictions to the always on-point critic Joel Siegel before the real ones were revealed. While the late great movie critic passed away in 2007, I'm always reminded about those special times during my younger days.

This year -- specifically a week from today (Jan. 24) -- I will be passing this odd tradition onto my newborn son, who unknowingly, will watch with me. As always, following the announcements, I will call my dad and give him the rundown of who did and didn't get nominated. Getting to the point of this post, here's my stab at predicting most of the categories for the 84th Annual Academy Award.The nominations are actually a little harder to predict this year since new rules allow for up to 10 Best Picture nominees (I predict eight because I sense Oscar votes will show some love to Harry Potter ... I could be wrong) but here goes nothing...

Best Picture
The Artist
The Descendants
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows Part 2
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
War Horse

Should Be Nominated But Won't: Warrior
Snub Potential: The Tree of Life, War Horse

Best Actor
George Clooney, The Descendants
Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Michael Fassbender, Shame
Brad Pitt, Moneyball

Should Be Nominated But Won't: Joseph Gordon-Levitt, 50/50
Snub Potential: Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Best Actress
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

Should Be Nominated But Won't: Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Snub Potential: Charlize Theron, Young Adult (If she gets nominated look for Swinton to be left off)

Best Supporting Actor
Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
Albert Brooks, Drive
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Ides of March
Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

Should Be Nominated But Won't: Nick Nolte, Warrior
Snub Potential: Jonah Hill, Moneyball, Armie Hammer, J. Edgar (I'm going out on a limb with Von Sydow and especially Hoffman but my gut is my gut. If either of them don't get in, expect one of these two to slip in. No matter who gets nominated no one is beating Plummer by the way...)

Best Supporting Actress
Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Carey Mulligan, Shame
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants

Should Be Nominated But Won't: Judy Greer, The Descendants; Anna Kendrick, 50/50
Snub Potential: Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs, Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids

Best Director
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo

Should Be Nominated But Won't: Bennett Miller, Moneyball
Snub Potential: Steven Spielberg, War Horse

The Rest...

Best Original Screenplay
The Artist
Bridesmaids
50/50
Midnight in Paris
Young Adult

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Descendants
The Help
Hugo
Moneyball
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Best Animated Feature
Arthur Christmas
The Adventures of Tin Tin
Rango
(If five, expect Kung-Fu Panda and Puss in Boots)

Best Cinematography
The Artist
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
The Tree of Life
War Horse

Best Score
The Artist
Drive
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
War Horse

Best Original Song
Lay Your Head Down - Albert Nobbs
Hello Hello - Gnomeo & Juliet
The Living Proof - The Help
Life's a Happy Song - The Muppets
Man or Muppet? - The Muppets

Art Direction
The Artist
Captain America
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo

Costume Design
The Artist
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
The Iron Lady
Midnight in Paris

Film Editing
The Artist
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Moneyball
War Horse
The Descendants

Best Visual Effects
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
The Tree of Life
X-Men: First Class

Best Sound Editing
Captain America
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
War Horse

Best Sound Mixing
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
War Horse

Best Make-Up
Albert Nobbs
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
The Iron Lady

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