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Gold Derby on the Oscars: Watch Out for Spoilers and Surprises

Gold Derby Staff — 2011-02-25T15:00:00+00:00

By Joseph White, Gold Derby associate editor

Nothing ever goes according to script in Hollywood, of course -- and that includes the Academy Awards.

Every year pundits huffily tout their predictions only to be flouted on Oscar night by upsets. Just over the past decade, for example, there were jawdroppers achieved by 'Crash' in the Best Picture race and, in the acting categories, Alan Arkin ('Little Miss Sunshine'), Jim Broadbent ('Iris'), Adrien Brody ('The Pianist'), Marion Cotillard ('La Vie en Rose'), Marcia Gay Harden ('Pollock') and Tilda Swinton ('Michael Clayton'), among others.

What about this Sunday night?

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Out of the 27 experts polled by Gold Derby, 22 say Natalie Portman ('Black Swan') will win Best Actress, giving her 2:3 racetrack odds. It's easy to see why she's the favorite. In recent years, Oscar voters (mostly older males) have been treating the lead actress contest like a beauty pageant, crowning lovelies such as Charlize Theron ('Monster'), Halle Berry ('Monster's Ball'), Nicole Kidman ('The Hours') and others. Portman is an extraordinary beauty and she endured enormous physical hardship in order to become a real dancer in 'Black Swan.' That's the kind dire physical transformation Hilary Swank performed in order to become a boxer and win this category for 'Million Dollar Baby.'

But beware: Portman isn't a shoo-in to win. Five of Gold Derby's pundits pick Annette Bening ('The Kids Are All Right') to pull off the win, giving her 3:2 odds.

Bening has several plusses.

o. She's a veteran overdue to win, having lost three times in the past.

o. She plays gay, which is how Sean Penn ('Milk') and Tom Hanks ('Philadelphia') won Oscars.

o. She's the ultimate Oscar insider, being a member of the academy's Board of Governors.

Meanwhile, most pundits believe that Melissa Leo ('The Fighter') will easily win Best Supporting Actress, but that's even a tougher race. When upsets occur at the Oscars, they tend to happen in these supporting slots and Leo is vulnerable. There's a noticeable backlash against her in Hollywood for taking out ads hyping herself too brazenly for the Oscar. As a result, she could lose to either one of two rivals:

o. Hailee Steinfeld really has the female lead role in 'True Grit.' Sure, that means she's guilty of category fraud, but that's often a successful Oscar ploy. It worked in the past in this same category for Jennifer Connelly ('A Beautiful Mind'), Rachel Weisz ('The Constant Gardener') and dozens of others, including Tatum O'Neal ('Paper Moon').

Speaking of Tatum O'Neal, she's evidence of how much Oscar voters love young people (she was age 10 when she won) -- like Steinfeld, too, perhaps? She's only 14 years old.

o. Helena Bonham Carter could benefit from a 'King's Speech' bandwagon effect. The Oscars are expected to turn into a 'King's Speech' coronation -- at least giving the royal drama the awards for Best Picture, Actor, Original Screenplay -- and possibly Best Original Score, Costumes and Art Direction, too. Carter gave a winning acceptance speech at BAFTA and has been a cheeky stand-out for her choice of shoe fashions on other red carpets.

There are no rivals to Colin Firth for the Best Actor throne (1:20 odds from Gold Derby). 'The Fighter' star Christian Bale (2:3 odds) seems like a safe bet for Best Supporting Actor, but there's an outside chance Geoffrey Rush could prevail if 'The King's Speech' pulls off an Oscar palace coup.

The following races are locked up: Best Original Screenplay ('The King's Speech'), Best Adapted Screenplay ('The Social Network'), Best Sound Editing ('Inception'), Best Sound Mixing ('Inception'), Best Visual Effects ('Inception'), Best Makeup ('The Wolfman'), Best Cinematography ('True Grit'), Best Film Editing ('The Social Network').

Most suspense surrounds the high-ranking contest over Best Director. Usually, that prize goes to the film that wins Best Picture and the helmer who wins the top award from the Director's Guild of America. In both cases, that's 'The King's Speech' and its director Tom Hooper, but nonetheless the vast major of experts predict 'The Social Network's' David Fincher will triumph. The reason: 'The Social Network' has to win some major award in addition to the screenplay and editing. It began this Oscar season as the frontrunner and swept all of the major critics' awards plus the Golden Globe. It deserves a major consolation prize on Oscar night.

There's such a strong backlash against the sudden surge for 'The King's Speech' that an upset by 'The Social Network' for Best Picture is not out of the question.

Gold Derby on the Oscars: How Do the BAFTA Winners Change the Race?

Gold Derby Staff — 2011-02-14T16:00:00+00:00

By Paul Sheehan, Gold Derby Executive Editor

On Sunday, 'The King's Speech' was crowned both Best Picture and Best British Film by the voters of the British Academy of Film and Television Arts. This marked the first time one film has won both of those races since the domestic prize was reintroduced in 1992. BAFTA bestowed seven awards in all on the stirring biopic about the efforts of King George VI to overcome a crippling stammer and deliver a rousing address to his empire on the eve of World War II.

Heading into the BAFTAs, 'The King's Speech' was the front-runner at the Oscars with a leading 12 nominations. The film had already won over both the producers and actors guilds, and helmer Tom Hooper took the bellwether Directors Guild Award as well.

However, 'The King's Speech' won just half of its 14 BAFTA bids. Could this be a sign that its Oscar fate is not yet sealed? About 10 percent of the nearly 5,800 Oscar voters also belong to BAFTA.

In the decade since the BAFTAs moved forward to take place while academy members are still voting, they have foreseen four Best Picture Oscar winners: 'Gladiator' (2000), 'The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King' (2003), 'Slumdog Millionaire' (2008) and 'The Hurt Locker' (2009).

Last year's surprise BAFTA sweep by the indie war drama over the 3-D blockbuster 'Avatar' gave it a much-needed boost towards the Oscars. 'The Hurt Locker' won five of its other eight BAFTA bids -- director, original screenplay, editing, sound and cinematography -- and repeated for all of those save the last (which went to 'Avatar') at the Oscars.

'King's Speech' leading man Colin Firth won his second-consecutive best actor BAFTA; he prevailed last year for 'A Single Man' over eventual Oscar champ Jeff Bridges ('Crazy Heart'). Having swept all of the precursor prizes, he is all but certain to win at the Oscars, too.

Veteran scripter David Seidler picked up a BAFTA for penning 'The King's Speech.' He wrote the original screenplay more than three decades ago but deferred to the wishes of the king's widow, Queen Elizabeth, to wait until her death before proceeding. While Seidler was ineligible with the writers' guild -- which went with Christopher Nolan for 'Inception' - he is favored to take home the Oscar.

Although BAFTA has forecast many of the eventual Oscar acting champs, the prospects of 'The King's Speech' supporting players Geoffrey Rush and Helena Bonham Carter repeating are somewhat diminished. At the BAFTAs, Rush did defeat Christian Bale ('The Fighter') for the first time in their head-to-head contests. But with wins at the Golden Globes, Critics' Choice and Screen Actors Guild, Bale is still favored at the Oscars.

Carter acknowledged in her BAFTA acceptance speech just how nice it was to win for a change. However, her chief rivals for the Oscar -- Melissa Leo ('The Fighter') and Hailee Steinfeld ('True Grit') -- did not number among the BAFTA nominees. Leo was snubbed in favor of co-star Amy Adams while Steinfeld contended in the best actress category. As for that race, 'Black Swan' leading lady Natalie Portman solidified her frontrunner status with yet another win.

Among the seven BAFTA defeats for 'The King's Speech,' the most surprising was that of best director. Hooper failed to win over his fellow Brits, losing the race to David Fincher, director of 'The Social Network.' That film, about the founding of Facebook, had swept all the critics awards but saw its Oscar prospects diminish when 'King's Speech' began winning the guild prizes. Perhaps Academy voters will split their vote, with 'King's Speech' winning Best Picture while Fincher takes home the directing Oscar.

'The Social Network' also won the BAFTA for editing over the slower-paced 'King's Speech,' as well as the flashier '127 Hours' and 'Black Swan.' All of these films, plus 'The Fighter,' contend for that prize at the Oscars where it has proven to be a telltale sign of the eventual Best Picture winner.

'The King's Speech' also lost several key below-the-line categories. Unlike the Oscars, where the entire membership casts ballots in these races, BAFTA restricts voting in the craft categories to the specific branches.

'Inception' won the production design BAFTA. With 'Avatar' winning both this award and the Oscar last year, we may be seeing a shift away from the historical epics that once dominated here. 'Inception' also took the sound award.

'Alice in Wonderland' won a third BAFTA for costume designer Colleen Atwood. Last year's BAFTA and Oscar winner was 'The Young Victoria,' a historical drama about King George VI's great-grandmother Queen Victoria.

Gold Derby on the Oscars: Advice for Three Oscar Contenders

Gold Derby Staff — 2011-02-07T15:00:00+00:00

By Matt Noble
Gold Derby Senior Editor

So, 'The King's Speech' looks like it has the Oscar in the bag. The Best Picture award is in danger of becoming "the one that got away" for 'The Social Network' -- and the eight other films in the race. So where to go from here? With only a couple of weeks until ballots are in, how do the big players control the narrative heading into the final stretch?

'The King's Speech':
This film's campaign is currently controlling the narrative, and will continue to do so, by reminding people of the film's heart. 'The King's Speech' makes you feel better about the world. It's optimistic, it's triumphant, and it's about the power of friendship. Heart is probably the best weapon you can have in your Oscar-bait arsenal, because it's a message worth selling. As long as they keep the conversation about this, refrain from entitlement and keep Harvey Weinstein (who is a polarizing figure in the industry) in the background, it's theirs to lose.

'The Social Network':
This was a film that started its campaign by relying on critical acclaim, a strategy that worked well in the past for producer Scott Rudin with 'No Country for Old Men' and one that seemed to be working wonders once again. 'The Social Network' swept the critics' awards, and looked like the consensus choice of the year. Then the guilds went the way of the 'King.' If it's critics vs. heart we know where the Academy tends to go: with their hearts.

'The Social Network' needs to change its strategy. When speaking to Gold Derby's Chris Beachum, screenwriter Aaron Sorkin described the film as "a timeless story about friendship and loyalty and power, betrayal, class and jealousy." That's what needs to be placed front and center. This is not just a film that defines the moment, as critics have raved, but rather, a story with lasting, universal themes.

Is what they love about 'The King's Speech' fleeting and irrational, whereas what 'The Social Network' presents has more depth and substance, plus the ability to stand the test of time? Will snubbing 'The Social Network' be regretted? To get the Academy to ask themselves these questions -- without a campaign that explicitly tells them to -- the push behind the film needs to focus on the timeless elements of the script and direction.

'Toy Story 3':
Under the preferential voting system, 'Toy Story 3' may be the only other film with a slither of a shot. The animated film can compete in the same arenas as 'The King's Speech' and 'The Social Network' with its sympathy factor and critical success, respectively. Furthermore, its box office performance ($415 million domestic) leaves both front-runners in the dust.

'Toy Story 3' needs to sell itself on being the film with the heart and the critics -- the best of both worlds. It also needs to win those second- and third-ranked ballots so that if the race is closer than expected, Woody and Buzz can overtake the two lead ponies.

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Gold Derby on the Oscars: How 'The King's Speech' Became the Oscar Front-Runner

Gold Derby Staff — 2011-01-31T15:30:00+00:00

By Paul Sheehan, executive editor of Gold Derby

Just 10 days ago, 'The King's Speech' looked like it would have to abdicate its hope of reigning on Oscar night. It had won no major Best Picture awards. 'The Social Network' was undefeated, from the National Board of Review through the film-critics awards and on to the Golden Globes. And now 'The King's Speech' is considered the front-runner. What happened?

'The King's Speech' staged a palace coup at the guild awards, winning Best Ensemble at the Screen Actors Guild on Sunday night, Best Director at the Directors Guild of America on Saturday night and Best Picture at the Producers Guild of America last week. How did it pull off this sweep?

The answer has to do with the nature of the two types of awards. Virtually all of the trophies won by 'The Social Network' were bestowed by journalists, who notoriously love hip movies with a message and attitude. No sentimentality allowed.

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After SAG Victory, Expect 'King's Speech' to Rule Oscars Next

Sometimes, when such films sail through these early awards, they succeed at the Oscars, like 'The Hurt Locker' and 'No Country for Old Men.' When they don't, there tends to be a movie with a big, bursting heart that gets embraced by a group of people usually accused of having no heart themselves: Hollywood industry insiders.

Consider what happened in the 1998 Oscar race when 'Saving Private Ryan' conquered almost all of the early awards: the New York Film Critics Circle, Los Angeles Film Critics Association, Broadcast Film Critics Association and the Golden Globes. The only two prizes it lost along the way were the National Board of Review ('Gods and Monsters') and the National Society of Film Critics ('Out of Sight'). On Oscar night, it was considered to be the heavy favorite, but -- surprise! -- it was upset by 'Shakespeare in Love.'

Oscar-watchers really shouldn't have been so shocked, considering what had happened just one year earlier. 'L.A. Confidential' had sailed through most of the early awards, but then slammed into an iceberg heading into Oscar waters. 'Titanic' was mocked by many cynical film critics for its unabashed romanticism (hearing Celine Dion croon 'My Heart Will Go On' made them particularly apoplectic), but it not only ended up winning Best Picture, it tied 'Ben-Hur''s record for highest Oscar tally ever (11).

'The King's Speech' is the same kind of unapologetic weepie, being the tale of a reluctant king of England who may seem all-powerful but isn't even the master of his own voice. Surprisingly, it's received good reviews from the cynical press, but, of course, it has its bashers -- like Ty Burr of the Boston Globe who ridicules it as "complacent middlebrow tosh engineered for maximum awards bling and catering to a nostalgia for the royalty we've never actually had to live with."

'The King's Speech,' though, will get the last word on Oscar night.

Gold Derby on the Oscars: Analyzing the 2011 Nominations

Gold Derby Staff — 2011-01-26T14:00:00+00:00

By Chris Beachum
Gold Derby Senior Editor

Now that Oscar nominations are out, what's next? Since 'The King's Speech' rules with the most nominations (12), does that mean it's stopped 'The Social Network' juggernaut? What will happen this weekend when awards are doled out by the Directors Guild of America and the Screen Actors Guild? And will they matter? Here's an update on the state of the derby.

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After sweeping the Golden Globes and critics' awards, 'The Social Network' can still win Best Picture at the Oscars, but it's now the underdog. It has four less Oscar nominations than 'The King's Speech' -- and numbers matter. The movie with the most nominations tends to win Best Picture 75 percent of the time. And 'The King's Speech' has new momentum, having just pulled off a surprise Best Picture victory last Saturday at the Producers Guild awards. Over the past 20 years, PGA and the Oscars have agreed on Best Picture 13 times. Game on!

How do you narrow down that group of 10 films competing for Best Picture to only the ones with a realistic chance of winning? Champs usually need to have three key nominations in addition to Best Picture: Best Director, Screenplay and Film Editing. Only three contenders have that: 'The Fighter,' 'The King's Speech' and 'The Social Network.' Why is this important? It has been 21 years ('Driving Miss Daisy') since a film won Best Picture without a directing nomination. It has been 30 years ('Ordinary People') since a film won Best Picture without a Film Editing nomination. Being nominated in one of the screenplay categories is also crucial to success. Even with a much better than expected 10 nominations, the lack of a Film Editing nomination most likely kills the chances of 'True Grit' for Best Picture.

There are two big events this weekend that will help predict the Oscars: the Directors Guild Awards on Saturday and the Screen Actors Guild Awards on Sunday. It is all about expectations. David Fincher is expected to win the DGA Award, so a win by anybody else spells possible doom for 'The Social Network' at the Oscars. On the other hand, 'The Social Network' is not expected to win the SAG ensemble category, with much more actor-friendly casts like 'The King's Speech,' 'The Fighter' and even 'The Kids Are All Right' competing). If TSN wins there, it is well on its way to an Oscar victory.

Also, the SAG Awards this weekend will be important in analyzing individual acting categories. The Golden Globes didn't help much on the Lead Actress race since Natalie Portman (drama) and Annette Bening (comedy) were both winners. A Natalie Portman SAG victory pretty much seals her race at the Oscars. An Annette Bening win doesn't lock up an Oscar for her (Bening also won in 2000 for 'American Beauty,' but still lost the Oscar to Hilary Swank) but might indicate a better battle on hand. In the Supporting Actress race, all eyes are on whether Melissa Leo can continue her recent winning streak or if newcomer Hailee Steinfeld (competing in this category with basically a leading role) can overtake her. Both Colin Firth and Christian Bale should have easy SAG wins (and Oscars as well).

In two weeks, the British Academy will have its BAFTA Awards ceremony and provide even more insight. Many voters in this group are also Oscar voters (about 500 out of the 5,700 academy members) and have tipped the scales in close races recently (Tilda Swinton, for example). British-themed 'The King's Speech' is expected to reign at these awards, of course, so if anything else prevails, it could speak volumes about the Academy Awards. Colin Firth just won the BAFTA last year (upsetting Jeff Bridges on his awards march), so will they want to go with Firth again so soon? Melissa Leo isn't even nominated at the BAFTAs, so who will they want to reward in that supporting category?

Looking at a few snubs: While Christopher Nolan easily deserves recognition as one of the most innovative directors of the past decade, it is hard to feel too bad for him since he did receive writing and producing Oscar nominations this week. The same goes for Mark Wahlberg, who probably deserved an acting nomination but will have to settle for the one he received for producing 'The Fighter' instead. Robert Duvall can be somewhat content with six previous nominations and one win. On the other hand, it is hard to be pleased when deserving contenders like Leonardo DiCaprio, Andrew Garfield, Paul Giamatti, Barbara Hershey, Mila Kunis, Lesley Manville and Julianne Moore were overlooked.

More Oscar Coverage From Moviefone:
Oscars 2011 Snubs and Surprises
Why Are There No Black Nominees This Year?
Does the Academy Hate Christopher Nolan?
2011 Oscar-Nominated Actors: A Portrait Gallery

Gold Derby on the Oscars: Will the Golden Globes Influence the Academy Awards?

Gold Derby Staff — 2011-01-17T14:30:00+00:00

By Robert Licuria, Gold Derby senior editor

Now that the Golden Globes are over, everybody wants to know: What impact will the big wins have on the Oscars?

The Globe has a reputation for being an uncanny Oscar crystal ball, but there are plenty of arguments to suggest that the Globes don't matter. None of the 88 voting members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association overlap with the nearly 6,000 Academy members who vote for the Oscars. In addition, given that the deadline for the first round of Academy Award voting was Jan. 14, whatever transpires at the Globes ceremony cannot influence how the Academy votes for its nominees, which are due to be announced on Jan. 25. By the time the Academy votes for its winners in February, the Globes will be a distant memory for most Oscar voters.

However, when comparing the vote results of the two awards in recent years, the Globes' impact is obvious. There are usually significant differences between the nominees for both awards, but the leading contenders tend to score bids for both and the Globes have such high visibility that it's hard for Oscar voters not to be influenced by the Globes' outcome when choosing their victors weeks later.

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Over the last 20 years, 13 winners of the Oscar for Best Actor had won one of the the two Golden Globes bestowed for lead male acting performances -- in Drama and Comedy or Musical. In the last five years, four of the Oscar winners for Best Actor also triumphed at the Golden Globes. The one exception: Globe champ Mickey Rourke ('The Wrestler') lost to Sean Penn ('Milk') at the Oscars.

As for the actresses, 12 Golden Globe winners have gone on to take the Oscar, including four winners in the Comedy or Musical lineup. In the last five years, all five Oscar winners also had Golden Globes on their mantels, including Kate Winslet, who won the Golden Globe in 2008 as Best Drama Actress for 'Revolutionary Road,' but eventually won the Oscar for 'The Reader,' for which she also won the Supporting Actress Globe that same year.

In the supporting races, 12 Golden Globe winners for Best Supporting Actor went on to Oscar glory, including four winners in the last five years, with only Eddie Murphy ('Dreamgirls') missing out on the Oscar in 2006 to Alan Arkin for 'Little Miss Sunshine.' As for the Best Supporting Actresses, 11 winners of the Golden Globe went on to win the Oscar, with three in the last five years grabbing the double win. Cate Blanchett for 'I'm Not There' missed out to Tilda Swinton for 'Michael Clayton' in 2007 and in 2008 Kate Winslet received a promotion to the lead actress category for 'The Reader,' thereby giving way to Penelope Cruz for 'Vicky Cristina Barcelona.'

The odds for the last couple of decades suggest a 60-70 percent correlation between the Golden Globe and Oscar races for the four acting prizes, probably not the greatest odds given the Globes arguably get two bites of the cherry in the lead races (as they honor both dramatic and comedic performances in separate categories). However, what is undeniable is that over the last five years, the Globes have done remarkably well at predicting the eventual winners in the acting categories.

As for Best Picture, the most coveted prize of all, the odds are not as good as they are for the actors. Although 12 of the last 20 Best Picture winners prevailed at the Globes (similar odds to the acting categories), over the last five years only one film has won both the Golden Globe and the Oscar for Best Picture ('Slumdog Millionaire,' in 2008).

So, even though last year the acting prizes went four for four (Jeff Bridges for 'Crazy Heart,' Sandra Bullock for 'The Blind Side,' Christoph Waltz for 'Inglourious Basterds' and Mo'Nique for 'Precious'), the HFPA went against the tide and bestowed top honors to 'Avatar' (with James Cameron winning Best Director), over 'The Hurt Locker' and Kathryn Bigelow, the ultimate winners at the Oscars.

Could these statistics be ominous for 'The Social Network' and David Fincher? Perhaps it makes a difference that the Globes have decided this year to follow the general consensus and award what is largely perceived by critics and journalists as the best film of 2010, much in the same way they did when 'Slumdog Millionaire' destroyed all films in its path in winning nearly all major precursors on its way to the ultimate prize at the Kodak Theater. Although the odds seem to suggest that the Globes are not as in step with the Best Picture Oscar as they once were, maybe this year the Hollywood Foreign Press could not pass up the most awarded and acclaimed film of the year, and in doing so, have continued that film's winning streak.

Should the team behind 'The King's Speech' come to terms with the inevitable loss next month? In a year in which general consensus suggests that the best film of 2010 was 'The Social Network,' is this win another step on the road to an ultimate triumph at the Oscars, or will 'The King's Speech' overcome this setback like 'The Hurt Locker' last year, 'No Country For Old Men' in 2007 (winning the Oscar over Globe winner 'Atonement'), 'The Departed' (winning the Oscar over Globe winner 'Babel' in 2006) and 'Crash' (winning the Oscar and not even being nominated for the Globe when 'Brokeback Mountain' prevailed in 2005)?

Only time will tell. Whether or not a win at the Globes increases its chances to win the top Oscar prize, at least the team behind 'The Social Network' can take comfort that they got to swan down the red carpet, sip champagne and mingle with the people that matter rather than be forgotten and lost in the shuffle in yet another crazy and hyped awards season. And maybe for those reasons alone, the Globes do matter, probably more than most of the myriad other awards ceremonies dotted throughout January and February each and every year.

More on the 2011 Golden Globes

Gold Derby on the Oscars: Can 'The Social Network' Be Stopped?

Gold Derby Staff — 2011-01-11T17:00:00+00:00

By Chris Beachum
GoldDerby.com Senior Editor

So far this Oscar season, 'The Social Network' has ended up on top of the friends' lists of every major award.

It won Best Picture from all leading trophy groups: National Board of Review, New York Film Critics Circle, Los Angeles Film Critics Association and National Society of Film Critics. Its juggernaut has two chances to continue, or halt, this weekend -- the Critics' Choice Awards on Friday and Golden Globes on Sunday -- but even if 'The Social Network' loses one or both, award watchers wonder: Is it already destined to win the top Academy Award?

Last year, 'The Hurt Locker' swept most of the critics' awards and went on to the Best Picture Oscar. Will voters heed the critics again or go their own way as they did in 2005 when critics hailed 'Brokeback Mountain' but Academy members chose 'Crash'? Or in 1997 when 'L.A. Confidential' was the overwhelming choice of critics, but 'Titanic' steamed to success at the Oscars?

The vast majority of Oscar experts polled by GoldDerby.com predict 'The Social Network' will win the Best Picture Oscar -- but, beware: the movie has some drawbacks. 'The Social Network' has no real sympathetic figure or rooting factor at its core like most previous Best Picture winners ('Slumdog Millionaire,' 'Million Dollar Baby') and most of its chief current rivals ('The Fighter,' 'The King's Speech,' 'True Grit'). Furthermore, the movie skews young. Too young for average academy members, who are mostly above age 50 (many way, way, above)?

There are several benchmarks to monitor over the next few weeks to determine whether 'The Social Network" is destined for the big prize or a big fall.

More From Gold Derby:
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Golden Globe Predictions From 21 Top Experts

What film will receive the most Oscar nominations when they're announced on Jan. 25? That leader usually wins Best Picture more than two-thirds of the time. 'The King's Speech' is expected to reign with the most this year, since it'll surely score bids in the top races (picture, director, script, acting) plus lots of crafts categories (costume design, art direction). 'Black Swan,' 'True Grit' and 'Inception' could also reap eight or more nominations. 'The Social Network' doesn't have artsy costumes and sets, so the most nominations it can score is only be around six or seven.

How will 'The Social Network' fare this weekend? Most pundits predict that it will win the Best Picture category at the Critics Choice Awards (Fri., Jan. 14, 9PM ET on VH1), which is no surprise considering how it's fared at other critics' kudos. On the other hand, Globe voters have an admitted affinity for British films like 'Atonement' and 'Sense and Sensibility' in some years over Oscar favorites. If 'Social' topples 'King's Speech' at the Globes, that will be a major step towards Oscar. It has only a slight edge (11 to nine over 'Speech') among the 20 experts offering predictions to Gold Derby.

Will the British Academy give their top BAFTA crown to local favorite 'The King's Speech' over critical favorite 'The Social Network'? Again, a win by 'TKS' would be no surprise but a 'Social' win would be a huge upset and would virtually guarantee an Oscar win.

The Director's Guild of America Award has the best rate (above 80 percent) when predicting what will win the Oscar for Best Picture. Will DGA choose a technical visionary like three-time nominee Christopher Nolan ('Inception')? If so, it might signify a shocking swing toward that blockbuster film within the Academy. David Fincher ('The Social Network') is currently favored to prevail.

Will the Screen Actors Guild award their award for best ensemble award to 'The Social Network' or the more actor-friendly 'The King's Speech'? The past three SAG ensemble winners ('The Hurt Locker,' 'Slumdog Millionaire,' 'No Country for Old Men') have gone on to win the Oscar for Best Picture. The upset win by 'Crash' in this category for the 2005 season was a hint of its Oscar upset ahead over 'Brokeback Mountain' that year.

Can 'The Social Network' maintain the buzz it has achieved throughout the early pre-Oscar awards season, even though the film was released in the early fall (Oct. 1)? Other recently released films, like 'The Fighter,' 'Black Swan' and 'True Grit,' have also received major support from guilds and other awards groups while hitting screens during the crucial end-of-season cycle. Late-year releases usually win Best Picture.

From everything that has happened so far this awards season, 'The Social Network' looks like it's on the right path for the top Oscar victory in late February. Take a closer look at the unfolding events over the next few weeks to make your final predictions.

'The Social Network' Clip