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On Tuesday, we laid out the recent trends of New York Film Circle Critic Awards leading to Oscar gold -- which, depending on the category, could be used somewhat as a barometer. Today, the National Board of Review awards were announced. Before the NYFCC move up their date, the NBR awards were the unofficial kickoff to awards season -- but is there a correlation between the NBR awards and an eventual Oscar? If recent trends are to be believed, the answer is, "probably not."

Overall, taking the eight corresponding categories between the two entities for the last five years, the chances of one of the winners taking home an Oscar are 30 percent. Put it this way: If C-3P0 just rattled off this statistic, National Board of Review Best Actor winner George Clooney might want to bark back at him, "Never tell me the odds!" Oh, speaking of Clooney, the NBR just loves him. In the last five years, including this year, Clooney has won Best Actor three times. Three! Of course, he's yet to capture an Academy Award for Best Actor (he has won an Oscar for Best Supporting Actor, which, of course, is also the year that the NBR snubbed Clooney in favor of Jake Gyllenhaal).

(NBR also loves Clint Eastwood, as evidenced by the inclusion of the critically-derided 'J. Edgar' on the NBR ten-best movies of the year list, as well as Eastwood's win for Best Director in 2009 for 'Invictus' and 'Letters to Iwo Jima's' Best Picture win in 2006.)

Actually, none of the acting winners should get too excited about today's win. Again, over the last five years, the NBR has only predicted one win in each of the four acting categories: Christian Bale (2010) and Penelope Cruz (2008) in the supporting categories and Forest Whitaker (2006) and Helen Mirren (2006) in the lead categories. Yes, the NBR Best Acting winners have not correlated with an Oscar winner in five years. So, sorry, George Clooney.

If there's one category that the NBR seems to get right (at least comparatively), it's Best Adapted Screenplay. Three of the last five winners have gone on to win the Oscar. And with 'The Descendants' winning this year, this minor trend has a good chance of continuing. And sure, the NBR's track record for Best Director isn't what anyone would call accurate (two out of the last five) one of those two Oscar winners is Martin Scorsese (for 'The Departed'), who was the somewhat surprising winner today for 'Hugo.'

The results from the last five years of NYFCC winners and Academy Awards winners are below (Winners of both are in bold).



Best Picture

2011

NBR: 'Hugo'

2010

NBR: 'The Social Network'
Academy Awards: 'The King's Speech'

2009

NBR: 'Up In the Air'
Academy Awards: The Hurt Locker

2008

NBR: 'Slumdog Millionaire'
Academy Awards: 'Slumdog Millionaire'

2007

NBR: 'No Country For Old Men'
Academy Awards: 'No Country For Old Men'

2006

NBR: 'Letters from Iwo Jima'
Academy Awards: 'The Departed'



Best Director

2011

NBR: Martin Scorsese ('Hugo')

2010

NBR: David Fincher ('The Social Network')
Academy Awards: Tom Hooper ('The King's Speech')

2009

NBR: Clint Eastwood ('Invictus')
Academy Awards: Kathryn Bigelow ('The Hurt Locker')

2008

NBR: David Fincher ('The Curious Case of Benjamin Button')
Academy Awards: Danny Boyle ('Slumdog Millionaire')

2007

NBR: Joel and Ethan Coen ('No Country For Old Men')
Academy Awards: Joel and Ethan Coen ('No Country For Old Men')

2006

NBR: 'Martin Scorsese' ('The Departed')
Academy Awards: 'Martin Scorsese' ('The Departed')


Best Original Screenplay

2011

NBR: '50/50'

2010

NBR: 'Buried;
Academy Awards: 'The King's Speech'

2009

NBR: 'A Serious Man'
Academy Awards: 'The Hurt Locker'

2008

NBR: 'Gran Torino'
Academy Awards: Milk

2007

NBR: 'Juno' and 'Lars and the Real Girl'
Academy Awards: 'Juno'

2006

NBR: 'Stranger Than Fiction'
Academy Awards: 'Little Miss Sunshine'


Best Adapted Screenplay

2011

NBR: 'The Descendants'

2010

NBR: 'The Social Network'
Academy Awards: 'The Social Network'

2009

NBR: 'Up In the Air'
Academy Awards: 'Precious'

2008

NBR: 'Slumdog Millionaire' and 'The Curious Case of Benjamin Button'
Academy Awards: 'Slumdog Millionaire'

2007

NBR: 'No Country For Old Men'
Academy Awards: 'No Country For Old Men'

2006

NBR: 'The Painted Veil'
Academy Awards: The Departed


Best Actress

2011

NBR: Tilda Swinton ('We Need to Talk About Kevin')


2010

NBR: Lesley Manville ('Another Year')
Academy Awards: Natalie Portman ('Black Swan')

2009

NBR: Carey Mulligan ('An Education')
Academy Awards: Sandra Bullock ('The Blind Side')

2008

NBR: Anne Hathaway ('Rachel Getting Married')
Academy Awards: Kate Winslet ('The Reader')

2007

NBR: Julie Christie ('Away From Her')
Academy Awards: Marion Cotillard ('La Vie En Rose')

2006

NBR: Helen Mirren ('The Queen')
Academy Awards: Helen Mirren ('The Queen')


Best Actor

2011

NBR: George Clooney ('The Descendants')

2010

NBR: Jesse Eisenberg ('The Social Network')
Academy Awards: Colin Firth ('The King's Speech')

2009

NBR: George Clooney ('Up In the Air') and Morgan Freeman ('Invictus')
Academy Awards: Jeff Bridges ('Crazy Heart')

2008

NBR: Clint Eastwood ('Gran Torino')
Academy Awards: Sean Penn ('Milk')

2007

NBR: George Clooney ('Michael Clayton')
Academy Awards: Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood')

2006

NBR: Forest Whitaker ('The Last King of Scotland')
Academy Awards: Forest Whitaker ('The Last King of Scotland')



Best Supporting Actress

2011

NBR: Shailene Woodley ('The Descendants')

2010

NBR: Jacki Weaver ('Animal Kingdom')
Academy Awards: Melissa Leo ('The Fighter')

2009

NBR: Anna Kendrick ('Up in the Air')
Academy Awards: Mo'Nique ('Precious')

2008

NBR: Penelope Cruz ('Vicky Christina Barcelona')
Academy Awards: Penelope Cruz ('Vicky Christina Barcelona')

2007

NBR: 'Amy Ryan' ('Gone Baby Gone')
Academy Awards: Tilda Swinton ('Michael Clayton')

2006

NBR: Catherine O'Hara ('For Your Consideration')
Academy Awards: Jennifer Hudson ('Dreamgirls')



Best Supporting Actor

2011

NBR:Christopher Plummer ('Beginners')

2010

NBR: Christian Bale ('The Fighter')
Academy Awards: Christian Bale ('The Fighter')

2009

NBR: Woody Harrelson ('The Messenger')
Academy Awards: Christoph Waltz ('Inglourious Basterds')

2008

NBR: Josh Brolin ('Milk')
Academy Awards: Heath Ledger ('The Dark Knight')

2007

NBR: Casey Affleck ('The Assignation of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford')
Academy Awards: Javier Bardem ('No Country For Old Men')

2006

NBR: Djimon Hounsou ('Blood Diamond')
Academy Awards: Alan Arkin ('Little Miss Sunshine')

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