The New York Film Critics Circle handed out some awards on Tuesday. Well, not "handed out," per se, (they'll do that at a ceremony next year), but they did announce the winners. What does this all mean? Are today's winners really the odds-on favorites for Oscar glory? If the recent trends of the correlation between NYFCC winners and Academy Award winners are a barometer, the answer to that question is, "It depends on the category."
Overall, taking the eight corresponding categories between the two entities for the last five years, the chances of one of the winners taking home an Oscar are 48 percent. Not bad! But, as stated, the category is a huge key.
Put it this way: Brad Pitt and Jessica Chastain ... better start practicing your acceptance speeches! Over the last five years, the winner for Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress has won four out of five times.
On the other side of this tragic coin: Meryl Streep, Aaron Sorkin and Steven Zaillian (the latter two co-wrote the screenplay for 'Moneyball') may not want to clean off a new spot on their mantels quite yet. In the last five years, only Helen Mirren, back in 2006, went on to win the Academy Award for Best Actress. And, surprisingly -- considering there are two chances here -- the NYFCC Best Screenplay winner only captured the Oscar for either Best Adapted Screenplay or Best Original Screenplay once -- 'No Country For Old Men' picked up a Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar in 2007.
The results from the last five years of NYFCC winners and Academy Awards winners are below (Winners of both are in bold).
(Omitted are Best Animated Film, Best Foreign Film and Best Documentary. There was no winner announced for this year's Best Animated Film. The year of eligibility for Best Foreign Film doesn't always correlate. The NYFCC did not hand out a Best Documentary award every year for the past five years.)
NYFCC: 'The Artist'
NYFCC: 'The Social Network'
Academy Awards: 'The King's Speech'
NYFCC: 'The Hurt Locker'
Academy Awards: 'The Hurt Locker'
Academy Awards: 'Slumdog Millionaire'
NYFCC: 'No Country For Old Men'
Academy Awards: 'No Country For Old Men'
NYFCC: 'United 93'
Academy Awards: 'The Departed'
NYFCC: Michael Hazanavicius
NYFCC: David Fincher, 'The Social Network'
Academy Awards: Tom Hooper, 'The King's Speech'
NYFCC: Kathryn Bigelow, 'The Hurt Locker'
Academy Awards: Kathryn Bigelow, 'The Hurt Locker'
NYFCC: Mike Leigh, 'Happy Go Lucky'
Academy Awards: Danny Boyle, 'Slumdog Millionaire'
NYFCC: Joel and Ethan Coen, 'No Country for Old Men'
Academy Awards: Joel and Ethan Coen, 'No Country for Old Men'
NYFCC: Martin Scorsese, 'The Departed'
Academy Awards: Martin Scorsese, 'The Departed'
NYFCC: Aaron Sorkin and Steve Zaillian, 'Moneyball'
NYFCC: Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg, 'The Kids Are All Right'
Academy Awards: David Seidler, 'The King's Speech' / Aaron Sorkin, 'The Social Network'
NYFCC: Jesse Armstrong & Simon Blackwell & Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche, 'In the Loop'
Academy Awards: Mark Boal, 'The Hurt Locker' / Geoffrey Fletcher, 'Precious'
NYFCC: Jenny Lumet, 'Rachel Getting Married'
Academy Awards: Dustin Lance Black, 'Milk' / Simon Beaufoy, 'Slumdog Millionaire'
NYFCC: Joel and Ethan Coen, 'No Country For Old Men'
Academy Awards: Diablo Cody, 'Juno' / Joel and Ethan Coen, 'No Country For Old Men'
NYFCC: Peter Morgan, 'The Queen'
Academy Awards: Michael Arndt, 'Little Miss Sunshine' / William Monahan, 'The Departed'
NYFCC: Meryl Streep, 'The Iron Lady'
NYFCC: Annette Bening, 'The Kids Are All Right'
Academy Awards: Natalie Portman, 'Black Swan'
NYFCC: Meryl Streep, 'Julie & Julia'
Academy Awards: Sandra Bullock, 'The Blind Side'
NYFCC: Sally Hawkins, 'Happy Go Lucky'
Academy Awards: Kate Winslet, 'The Reader'
NYFCC: Julie Christie, 'Away From Her'
Academy Awards: Marion Cotillard, 'La Vie En Rose'
NYFCC: Helen Mirren, 'The Queen'
Academy Awards: Helen Mirren, 'The Queen'
NYFCC: Brad Pitt, 'Moneyball'/'The Tree of Life'
NYFCC: Colin Firth, 'The King's Speech'
Academy Awards: Colin Firth, 'The King's Speech'
NYFCC: George Clooney, 'Up in the Air'
Academy Awards: Jeff Bridges, 'True Grit'
NYFCC: Sean Penn, 'Milk'
Academy Awards: Sean Penn, 'Milk'
NYFCC: Daniel Day-Lewis, 'There Will Be Blood'
Academy Awards: Daniel Day-Lewis, 'There Will Be Blood'
NYFCC: Forest Whitaker, 'The Last King of Scotland'
Academy Awards: Forest Whitaker, 'The Last King of Scotland'
Best Supporting Actress
NYFCC: Jessica Chastain, 'The Tree of Life'/'Take Shelter'/'The Help'
NYFCC: Melissa Leo, 'The Fighter'
Academy Awards: Melissa Leo, 'The Fighter'
NYFCC: Mo'Nique, 'Precious'
Academy Awards: Mo'Nique, 'Precious'
NYFCC: Penelope Cruz, 'Vicky Cristina Barcelona'
Academy Awards: Penelope Cruz, 'Vicky Cristina Barcelona'
NYFCC: Amy Ryan, 'Gone Baby Gone'
Academy Awards: Tilda Swinton, 'Michael Clayton'
NYFCC: Jennifer Hudson, 'Dreamgirls'
Academy Awards: Jennifer Hudson, 'Dreamgirls'
Best Supporting Actor
NYFCC:Albert Brooks, 'Drive'
NYFCC: Mark Ruffalo, 'The Kids Are All Right'
Academy Awards: Christian Bale, 'The Fighter'
NYFCC: Christoph Waltz, 'Inglourious Basterds'
Academy Awards: Christoph Waltz, 'Inglourious Basterds'
NYFCC: Josh Brolin, 'Milk'
Academy Awards: Heath Ledger, 'The Dark Knight'
NYFCC: Javier Bardem, 'No Country for Old Men'
Academy Awards: Javier Bardem, 'No Country for Old Men'
NYFCC: Jackie Earle Haley, 'Little Children'
Academy Awards: Alan Arkin, 'Little Miss Sunshine'
NYFCC: 'The Tree of Life'
NYFCC: 'Black Swan'
Academy Awards: 'Inception'
NYFCC: 'The White Ribbon'
Academy Awards: 'Avatar'
NYFCC: 'Slumdog Millionaire'
Academy Awards: 'Slumdog Millionaire'
NYFCC: 'There Will Be Blood'
Academy Awards: 'There Will Be Blood'
NYFCC: 'Pan's Labyrinth'
Academy Awards: 'Pan's Labyrinth'
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