Since last week's first Oscar rankings on Cinematical, another eleven critics' groups have announced their annual winners. Austin, Dallas, Detroit, Florida, Houston, Las Vegas, London, Oklahoma, St. Louis, and Utah have all come through with their final choices. As did the Chicago Film Critics Association (of which I am a member), whose 22nd Annual Awards came through on Monday. Alone, their victors and nominees post pretty decent numbers in matching up the final nominees. But combined with the nominees from the Screen Actors Guild and the easily influenced (yet somehow still influential) Golden Globes and Broadcast Film Critics Association, it usually begins to help locking in the inevitable and positioning the fringe players. Will it do so this year?
These rankings and commentary reflect the films and performers' chances at a nomination. Not of their chances to win it all. Though all the #1's are the likely frontrunners right now.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Christian Bale ('The Fighter') - Way ahead with 14 victories.
2. Geoffrey Rush ('The King's Speech') - BFCA/Globes/Chicago/SAG nominees are 16-0 for an Oscar nomination.
3. Jeremy Renner ('The Town') - BFCA, Globes & SAG nominees here are a perfect 23-0 since 2001. A perfect 5-0 without a nod from Chicago.
4. Mark Ruffalo ('The Kids Are All Right') - Last six choices from New York were nominated. BFCA/Chicago/SAG nominees with Globe snub are 3-0 since 2003.
5. Andrew Garfield ('The Social Network') - BFCA/Globes nominees here 23-for-25 since 2001. The two who missed were also snubbed by SAG. Even with Chicago nom, last SAG snub with other three nominations - Paul Newman in 2002.
6. John Hawkes ('Winter's Bone') - BFCA & Globes snub supplemented by SAG and Chicago love translated to nom for Jackie Earle Haley in 2006.
7. Sam Rockwell ('Conviction') - Detroit & St. Louis precursor his BFCA nomination.
8. Michael Douglas ('Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps') - Globe nominee and potential Bale upset on Jan. 16.
9. Matt Damon ('True Grit') - Only love from Phoenix thus far.
10. Bill Murray ('Get Low') - That the Globes completely shut this film out of comedy categories is unforgivable.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Melissa Leo ('The Fighter') - Getting position as the frontrunner.
2. Amy Adams ('The Fighter') - Deserves to be the frontrunner. But only two wins to Leo's six.
3. Helena Bonham Carter ('The King's Speech') - BFCA/Globe/Chicago/SAG nominees 18-0 here since 2002. Your top three here share those accolades.
4. Hailee Steinfeld ('True Grit') - Has as many victories as Leo right now. But is she really a lead rather than supporting performance? Whale Rider, anyone?
5. Mila Kunis ('Black Swan') - BFCA/Globe/SAG nominees to be snubbed by Chicago are 3-0.
6. Jacki Weaver ('Animal Kingdom') - L.A. & NBR have agreed 8 times since 1982. Five won the Oscar. All were nominated. But SAG snub looms large.
7. Lesley Manville ('Another Year') - Sony Classics pushing her for Lead, yet some groups thinking she is Supporting.
8. Julianne Moore ('The Kids Are All Right') - I argued Bening for Supporting. Houston went the other way.
9. Juliette Lewis ('Conviction') - Boston named her the best for her 1.5 scenes in the film.
10. Barbara Hershey ('Black Swan') - BFCA & HFPA obviously prefer oral-giving understudies to stage moms.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. 'Inception' – Chicago, Florida, Oklahoma and D.C. said it was the year's best.
2. 'The King's Speech' – San Francisco, St. Louis and critics in the Southeast disagreed.
3. 'The Kids Are All Right' – BFCA/Globe/Chicago nominees 8-0 since 2001.
4. 'Black Swan' – Even with Globe snub, a BFCA/Chicago nominee is 5-0 in that period.
5. 'The Fighter' – Scripts with only BFCA support are a 50/50 proposition. ((BEST PICTURE NOMINEES???))
6. 'Another Year' – Same boat as The Fighter where no Globes or Chicago support is 3-for-6. Mike Leigh an Oscar nominee 4 times for writing.
7. 'Four Lions' – Chicago supports it with nomination. 6-for-13 when going rogue from BFCA and the Globes.
8. 'Buried' - National Board of Review's choice for Best Original has been nominated 5-of-7 times.
9. 'Blue Valentine' - Derek Cianfrance just named Most Promising Filmmaker from Chicago.
10. 'Biutiful' - Will need more than just a nod from St. Louis.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. 'The Social Network' – No other adaptation has won a prize yet.
2. 'Toy Story 3' - Five of the last six Pixar scripts received a nomination.
3. '127 Hours' – 24-of-25 BFCA/Globes nominees got Oscar nod since 2002. Without Chicago support, 3-out-of-4 have been nominated.
4. 'Winter's Bone' - 79% of BFCA Screenplay nominees get an Oscar nod.
5. 'True Grit' - But only 63% do it without a corresponding Globe nomination. 66% with Chicago nod which 'Bone' and 'Grit' got.
6. 'The Town' – Scripts only nominated by BFCA are 1-for-4. In 2009, 1-for-3 alone.
7. 'Rabbit Hole' – Chicago is the first to acknowledge this potential sleeper nominee. 8-of-14 when standing alone.
8. 'Scott Pilgrim vs. the World' - Has its fans in St. Louis and San Diego.
9. 'Shutter Island' - San Diego nominated it, but no match for The Social Network.
10. 'Never Let Me Go' - On Phoenix's Best Six list.
1. Colin Firth ('The King's Speech') - 26 of the last 30 New York Critics' winners were nominated. Including last five.
2. Jesse Eisenberg ('The Social Network') – Has five trophies up against Firth's nine.
3. James Franco ('127 Hours') – Actors with SAG, Chicago, the Globes and the BFCA in their corner are 22-for-23 since 2001. Your top three qualify.
4. Jeff Bridges ('True Grit') - Ryan Gosling (2006) & Richard Jenkins (2008) got nominated with Globe snub when BFCA, SAG, and Chicago nominated them. No snubs with that combo.
5. Robert Duvall ('Get Low') – BFCA/SAG got Sean Penn the actor nominated in 2001. But not Penn the director. Emile Hirsch left off Oscar list in 2007.
6. Ryan Gosling ('Blue Valentine') - SAG snub gives him 50/50 shot at Oscar. Terrence Howard in '05 - Yes. DiCaprio for The Departed in '06 - No.
7. Mark Wahlberg ('The Fighter') - Jude Law & Michael Caine translated a single Globe nod to Oscar since 2001. Six others did not.
8. Javier Bardem ('Biutiful') - Early festival favorite only lauded by St. Louis to date.
9. Paul Giamatti ('Barney's Version') - If he couldn't get nominated for 'Sideways', this is unlikely.
10. Kevin Spacey ('Casino Jack') - Globes nominate performance of a lobbyist. How appropriate.
1. Natalie Portman ('Black Swan') - A dozen awards for starters.
2. Annette Bening ('The Kids Are All Right') - 8 of the last 10 New York Critics' choices have been nominated.
3. Jennifer Lawrence ('Winter's Bone') - Get nods from BFCA, Globes, SAG and Chicago like the top 3, you have a 22-in-23 chance in being nominated.
4. Nicole Kidman ('Rabbit Hole') - BFCA/Globe/SAG nominees are 32-1 overall. 10-0 without mention from Chicago.
5. Michelle Williams ('Blue Valentine') - SAG also snubbed Keira Knightley for Pride & Prejudice in 2005 and she was nominated by Chicago, Globes, BFCA, and Oscar.
6. Lesley Manville ('Another Year') - Chicago first mention since National Board of Review. History gives her a 1-in-6 chance.
7. Hilary Swank ('Conviction') - SAG is 0-for-2 when it goes its own way from the pack.
8. Noomi Rapace ('The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo') - London and Vegas trying to keep the BFCA heat alive.
9. Julianne Moore ('The Kids Are All Right') - Surprising non-showing after early assumptions that film's primary threesome would all be lauded.
10. Halle Berry ('Frankie and Alice') - Guess Globe voters got their screeners! What else did they get for this nomination?
1. David Fincher ('The Social Network') - Is anyone seriously betting against Fincher at this point?
2. Darren Aronofsky ('Black Swan') - 14 awards behind Fincher. But 3 is good enough for second.
3. Christopher Nolan ('Inception') - Actually ahead of Aronofsky in pure award mentions. 12 wins/nominees to his 10.
4. Tom Hooper ('The King's Speech') - BFCA/Globes/Chicago nominees are 19-2 for Oscar nod. Only Baz Luhrmann (2001) and Peter Jackson (2005) shut out. Top 4 look solid.
5. Danny Boyle ('127 Hours') - Eight wins/nominations to #6's five. That's one ahead of Hooper too.
6. Joel & Ethan Coen ('True Grit') - Like Boyle, only nominated by BFCA. Stat is 3-for-8 since '01.
7. David O. Russell ('The Fighter') - Globes nod without BFCA & Chicago gives him a 30% chance.
8. Debra Granik ('Winter's Bone') - Chicago nod without BFCA & Globes gives her also a 30% chance.
9. Olivier Assayas ('Carlos') - L.A. Critics just had to tie him with David Fincher.
10. Edgar Wright ('Scott Pilgrim vs. the World') - Detroit critics preferred this over work by Aronofsky and the Coens.
1. 'The Social Network' - 65 awards compared to Black Swan's 28 right now.
2. 'Black Swan' - Only two films to beat 'Social' so far. Austin chose this.
3. 'The King's Speech' - BFCA/Globes/Chicago + SAG Ensemble nominees are 18-3 since 1999. That equals your top three.
4. 'Inception' - BFCA/Globes/Chicago minus SAG Ensemble nod is 14-0 since 2005.
5. 'The Fighter' - Despite no Chicago nod, films that get the other three are 11-2 since 2001.
6. 'Winter's Bone' - The other film to beat 'Social'. BFCA/Chicago nominees only 2-for-7. But those two were Milk (2008) and A Serious Man (2009).
7. 'Toy Story 3' - Four Best Pic nods plus a nom from BFCA who also nominated Up last year when Chicago and the Globes did not.
8. '127 Hours' - It tied 'Social' for Best Picture in Utah. That's something, right?
9. 'True Grit' - Last films to be completely shut out by Globes and get nominated - 'The Thin Red Line' and 'Life Is Beautiful'. Both in 1998.
10. 'The Kids Are All Right' - Last film to be picked up by Globes and SAG after BFCA (& Chicago) snub to get Best Pic nod - 'Gosford Park' in 2001. Other three are: 'My Big Fat Greek Wedding,' 'Hairspray' and 'Bobby.'
11. 'The Town' - With potential Renner and script nods, it's the film they could find room for.
12. 'How To Train Your Dragon' - A strong push by Dreamworks would certainly make the Animated Feature race more interesting wouldn't it?
13. 'Rabbit Hole' - Speculation that it could be this year's spoiler.
14. 'Shutter Island' - May have been nominated in 2009 with original release date. Not looking good for 2010.
15. 'Blue Valentine' - A longshot if Gosling and Williams are snubbed, but a very deserving film.