CATEGORIES Awards, Cinematical


Awards season officially exploded this week. Since this last Sunday, 14 different groups have announced either their winners or nominations with the Chicago Film Critics Association slated to unveil their contenders on Friday. The race is starting to come into focus as far as the locks are concerned, but is just as hazy as ever on the fringes which could post dramatic shifts over the next month. Some need help. Others need to maintain momentum and presence. We have all season to break down the numbers per group, what they could mean and where speculation is headed. In the meantime, let us start out simple and just show you where the current road of Oscar leads.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Melissa Leo ('The Fighter') - The showier of the two performances takes the lead.
2. Jacki Weaver ('Animal Kingdom') - L.A. & NBR have agreed 8 times since 1982. Five won the Oscar. All were nominated.
3. Helena Bonham Carter ('The King's Speech') - BFCA/Globe nominees 28-for-30 here since 2001.
4. Amy Adams ('The Fighter') - Ditto for arguably the be

5. Mila Kunis ('Black Swan') - Cameron Diaz & Julianne Moore only two BFCA/Globe nominees to miss. Could she be the third?
6. Hailee Steinfeld ('True Grit') - Indiana, Toronto and the Southeastern critics all crowned the newbie, but the Globes snubbed her.
7. Lesley Manville ('Another Year') - Sony Classics pushing her for Lead, yet some groups thinking she is Supporting.
8. Julianne Moore ('The Kids Are All Right') - I argued Bening for Supporting. Houston went the other way.
9. Juliette Lewis ('Conviction') - Boston named her the best for her 1.5 scenes in the film.
10. Barbara Hershey ('Black Swan') - BFCA & HFPA obviously prefer o





BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Christian Bale ('The Fighter') - More accolades than any actor or actress at this point.
2. Geoffrey Rush ('The King's Speech') - Bale's closest competitor still far behind.
3. Jeremy Renner ('The Town') - BFCA, Globes & SAG nominees here are a perfect 23-0 since 2001.
4. Mark Ruffalo ('The Kids Are All Right') - Last six choices from New York were nominated.
5. Andrew Garfield ('The Social Network') - BFCA/Globes nominees here 23-for-25 since 2001. The two who missed were also snubbed by SAG.
6. John Hawkes ('Winter's Bone') - SAG nomination helps, but only once have they matched 5-for-5. But it was 2009.
7. Sam Rockwell ('Conviction') - Detroit & St. Louis precursor his BFCA nomination.
8. Michael Douglas ('Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps') - Globe nominee and potential Bale upset on Jan. 16.
9. Matt Damon ('True Grit') - Only love from Phoenix thus far.
10. Bill Murray ('Get Low') - How the Globes completely shut this film out of comedy categories is unforgivable.



BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Melissa Leo ('The Fighter') - The showier of the two performances takes the lead.
2. Jacki Weaver ('Animal Kingdom') - L.A. & NBR have agreed 8 times since 1982. Five won the Oscar. All were nominated. But snubbed by SAG
3. Helena Bonham Carter ('The King's Speech') - BFCA/Globe nominees 28-for-30 here since 2001.
4. Amy Adams ('The Fighter') - Ditto for arguably the best performance of the lot.
5. Mila Kunis ('Black Swan') - Cameron Diaz only two BFCA/Globe/SAG nominee to miss Oscar nomination. Could she be the second?
6. Hailee Steinfeld ('True Grit') - Indiana, Toronto and the Southeastern critics all crowned the newbie, but the Globes snubbed her.
7. Lesley Manville ('Another Year') - Sony Classics pushing her for Lead, yet some groups thinking she is Supporting.
8. Julianne Moore ('The Kids Are All Right') - I argued Bening for Supporting. Houston went the other way.
9. Juliette Lewis ('Conviction') - Boston named her the best for her 1.5 scenes in the film.
10. Barbara Hershey ('Black Swan') - BFCA & HFPA obviously prefer oral-giving understudies to stage moms.



BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. 'Inception' - Could be where the Academy says I'm sorry for screwing 'The Dark Knight.'
2. 'The King's Speech' - 24-of-25 BFCA/Globe nominees got Oscar bid since 2003.
3. 'The Kids Are All Right' - Fellow BFCA/Globe nominee. Only 'Charlie Wilson's War' snubbed since '03.
4. 'Black Swan' - Nominated so far by St. Louis, Phoenix and the BFCA.
5. 'The Fighter' - If it is a serious Best Picture contender as some suggests, it needs this nomination.
6. 'Another Year' - Only nod from BFCA so far. Mike Leigh an Oscar nominee 4 times for writing.
7. 'Buried' - National Board of Review's choice for Best Original has been nominated 5-of-7 times.
8. 'Four Lions' - San Diego stays classy and awards it best of the year.
9. 'Blue Valentine' - Awaiting first kudos of the season. Better than at least three of the top five.
10. 'Biutiful' - Will need more than just a nod from St. Louis.



BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. 'The Social Network' - They may as well start engraving Aaron Sorkin's nameplate.
2. 'Toy Story 3' - Five of the last six Pixar scripts received a nomination.
3. '127 Hours' - Those BFCA/Globe numbers are no joke.
4. 'Winter's Bone' - 79% of BFCA Screenplay nominees get an Oscar nod.
5. 'True Grit' - But only 63% do it without a corresponding Globe nomination.
6. 'The Town' - Also has BFCA nod and has good chance of sneaking in there.
7. 'Rabbit Hole' - No awards here yet. Just a hunch of many Oscar guessers.
8. 'Scott Pilgrim vs. the World' - Has its fans in St. Louis and San Diego.
9. 'Shutter Island' - San Diego nominated it, but no match for The Social Network.
10. 'Never Let Me Go' - On Phoenix's Best Six list.



BEST ACTOR
1. Colin Firth ('The King's Speech') - 26 of the last 30 New York Critics' winners were nominated. Including last five.
2. Jesse Eisenberg ('The Social Network') - Once a fringe player. Now a lock.
3. James Franco ('127 Hours') - Indiana and the New York Film Critics Online called him the best. 7 other nominations to date.
4. Jeff Bridges ('True Grit') - Sean Penn (2001), Ryan Gosling (2006) & Richard Jenkins (2008) got nominated with Globe snub when BFCA & SAG nominated them.
5. Robert Duvall ('Get Low') - SAG nomination overthrows the Globes' ridiculous snub.
6. Ryan Gosling ('Blue Valentine') - Nominated by BFCA, Globes, Chicago, and SAG. In 2007. And got snubbed by Oscar.
7. Mark Wahlberg ('The Fighter') - Globes nomination his first taste of the riches his co-stars are reaping left and right.
8. Javier Bardem ('Biutiful') - Early festival favorite only lauded by St. Louis to date.
9. Paul Giamatti ('Barney's Version') - If he couldn't get nominated for 'Sideways', this is unlikely.
10. Kevin Spacey ('Casino Jack') - Globes nominated him for Comedy. What are they really saying about the film?



BEST ACTRESS
1. Natalie Portman ('Black Swan') - Considered the favorite to win. Biggest victory so far has been from Boston.
2. Annette Bening ('The Kids Are All Right') - Her nemesis, Hilary Swank, co-nominated by SAG for third time. Unlikely to see third Oscar showdown though.
3. Jennifer Lawrence ('Winter's Bone') - Just one behind Portman in victories at this point.
4. Nicole Kidman ('Rabbit Hole') - BFCA/Globe/SAG nominees are 32-1 here. The top four rankings all qualify.
5. Michelle Williams ('Blue Valentine') - SAG snub stings. Only 2-of-6 BFCA/Globe nominees been nodded with this snub.
6. Lesley Manville ('Another Year') - Last 20 National Board of Review winners have been nominated. Snubs nearly across the board may end that streak.
7. Hilary Swank ('Conviction') - Likely to be the SAG nominee left off the Oscar list.
8. Noomi Rapace ('The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo') - Niche favorite could be fourth character to receive oral in this category. That's right, MPAA. Deal with it!
9. Julianne Moore ('The Kids Are All Right') - Surprising non-showing after early assumptions that film's primary threesome would all be lauded.
10. Halle Berry ('Frankie and Alice') - Guess Globe voters got their screeners!


BEST DIRECTOR
1. David Fincher ('The Social Network') - Already won nine awards through Dec. 15 including NY & LA prizes.
2. Christopher Nolan ('Inception') - Just because he might win Screenplay does not mean they will snub him here. Again.
3. Darren Aronofsky ('Black Swan') - Fincher has won nine awards. Nolan has one. Aronofsky has two.
4. Tom Hooper ('The King's Speech') - 24-of-30 BFCA/Globe nominees had Oscar shot. Top four here share that distinction.
5. Danny Boyle ('127 Hours') - Has six nominations to Hooper's five at this point.
6. Joel & Ethan Coen ('True Grit') - Competition may be too stiff. Though Boyle has won it more recently than they have. By one year.
7. Debra Granik ('Winter's Bone') - Detroit, San Diego, and Indiana have not forgotten the Year of the Woman.
8. David O. Russell ('The Fighter') - Got the Globe slot over Danny Boyle. Only 3-for-9 when going rogue from BFCA since 2002.
9. Olivier Assayas ('Carlos') - L.A. Critics just had to tie him with David Fincher.
10. Edgar Wright ('Scott Pilgrim vs. the World') - Detroit critics preferred this over work by Aronofsky and the Coens.



BEST PICTURE
1. 'The Social Network' - Only one film has beaten it at this point.
2. 'The King's Speech' - SAG ensemble nominees with BFCA/Globes nods are 25-4 at Oscar.
3. 'Black Swan' - Dreamgirls and Adaptation were two to miss.
4. 'The Fighter' - American Gangster and Hotel Rwanda were the others. Top 4 look pretty solid though.
5. 'Inception' - Actually tied with King's Speech for nominations before SAG ensemble choices.
6. 'Winter's Bone' - The only film to beat The Social Network right now.
7. '127 Hours' - If Boyle is in the running for Director, this is more than in the race.
8. 'Toy Story 3' - Ten nominees can surely find room for Pixar excellence.
9. 'True Grit' - Last films to be completely shut out by Globes and get nominated - 'The Thin Red Line' and 'Life Is Beautiful'. Both in 1998.
10. 'The Kids Are All Right' - Last film to be picked up by Globes and SAG after BFCA snub to get Best Pic nod - 'Gosford Park' in 2001. Other three are: 'My Big Fat Greek Wedding,' 'Hairspray' and 'Bobby.'
11. 'The Town' - With potential Renner and script nods, it's the film they could find room for.
12. 'Rabbit Hole' - Speculation that it could be this year's spoiler.
13. 'Shutter Island' - May have been nominated in 2009 with original release date. Not looking good for 2010.

Next week we'll be back to see how winners from the Chicago Film Critics Association and other cities effect the numbers and the rankings.
c
BEST ACTOR

1. Colin Firth ('The King's Speech') - 26 of the last 30 New York Critics' winners were nominated. Including last five.
2. Jesse Eisenberg ('The Social Network') - Once a fringe player. Now a lock.
3. James Franco ('127 Hours') - Indiana and the New York Film Critics Online called him the best. 7 other nominations to date.
4. Jeff Bridges ('True Grit') - Sean Penn (2001), Ryan Gosling (2006) & Richard Jenkins (2008) got nominated with Globe snub when BFCA & SAG nominated them.
5. Robert Duvall ('Get Low') - SAG nomination overthrows the Globes' ridiculous snub.
6. Ryan Gosling ('Blue Valentine') - Nominated by BFCA, Globes, Chicago, and SAG. In 2007. And got snubbed by Oscar.
7. Mark Wahlberg ('The Fighter') - Globes nomination his first taste of the riches his co-stars are reaping left and right.
8. Javier Bardem ('Biutiful') - Early festival favorite only lauded by St. Louis to date.
9. Paul Giamatti ('Barney's Version') - If he couldn't get nominated for 'Sideways', this is unlikely.
10. Kevin Spacey ('Casino Jack') - Globes nominated him for Comedy. What are they really saying about the film? c
BEST ACTOR

1. Colin Firth ('The King's Speech') - 26 of the last 30 New York Critics' winners were nominated. Including last five.
2. Jesse Eisenberg ('The Social Network') - Once a fringe player. Now a lock.
3. James Franco ('127 Hours') - Indiana and the New York Film Critics Online called him the best. 7 other nominations to date.
4. Jeff Bridges ('True Grit') - Sean Penn (2001), Ryan Gosling (2006) & Richard Jenkins (2008) got nominated with Globe snub when BFCA & SAG nominated them.
5. Robert Duvall ('Get Low') - SAG nomination overthrows the Globes' ridiculous snub.
6. Ryan Gosling ('Blue Valentine') - Nominated by BFCA, Globes, Chicago, and SAG. In 2007. And got snubbed by Oscar.
7. Mark Wahlberg ('The Fighter') - Globes nomination his first taste of the riches his co-stars are reaping left and right.
8. Javier Bardem ('Biutiful') - Early festival favorite only lauded by St. Louis to date.
9. Paul Giamatti ('Barney's Version') - If he couldn't get nominated for 'Sideways', this is unlikely.
10. Kevin Spacey ('Casino Jack') - Globes nominated him for Comedy. What are they really saying about the film?