Check out the full list of 2011 Golden Globe nominees for both Film and Television
The Golden Globes used to be looked upon as a little teaser for the Oscar nominations. Technology had not progressed to the point that we could instantly track every single award handed out across the country in the month of December at the touch of a button. So we looked at the live party with the celebrities and particularly the winners to see who might take home the bigger statuette a few months later. Opening our gold Christmas presents early, if you will. Nowadays we do not need newspapers or Variety to see what film critic groups are awarding first. There are competing award shows from the Screen Actors Guild to the Broadcast Film Critics Association's annual we-guess-better-than-anyone travesty. Are the Globes numbers really as relevant anymore?
The Hollywood Foreign Press Association's numbers already face a setback compared to the BFCA's stats since they love to nominate six instead of five just to give themselves that little edge in guessing right. The Globes, though, have always managed to double up on their lead performances by splitting their categories into Drama and Comedy/Musical. Not that they can always decide which is which as evidenced by Jamie Foxx being put into the latter for 'Ray', yet Jeff Bridges in the former for 'Crazy Heart' last year. Numbers always look best when rounded, and as modern history intrudes on the past, it is the growing trends we need to examine rather than a blanket overview.
So what do the recently announced Golden Globe nominations mean for the upcoming Oscar nods? We break it down after the jump.
Over the past decade from 2000-09, the Globes have previewed 42 of the eventual 50 Best Actor contenders (out of 101 possible nominees between the two genre categories.) 35 from Drama and 7 from Comedy. The ladies have fared slightly better overall with 43-of-50 and double the pleasure in Comedy with 14 of their last 51 choices getting picked. So, do not think you are staring at a list where your Oscar nominees are staring back at you. While you could do that for the women half the time since 2000, only twice in that span have the Best Actor nominees all been nominated for a Golden Globe in either category. The last time was 2005 on the men's side. Three of the last five years for the ladies.
This is good news for leading contenders, Natalie Portman ('Black Swan'), Annette Bening ('The Kids Are All Right') and Nicole Kidman ('Rabbit Hole'). Not so great for Emma Stone ('Easy A'), Angelina Jolie ('The Tourist') and Anne Hathaway ('Love and Other Drugs'). Especially when Jennifer Lawrence ('Winter's Bone'), Michelle Williams ('Blue Valentine'), and Julianne Moore ('The Kids Are All Right') are all considered in the running. This is the first boost for Halle Berry's late run for the Oscar in 'Frankie and Alice', but is it a setback for the likes of Noomi Rapace ('The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo') and Lesley Manville ('Another Year') unless they become one of this year's Globe stat spoilers? Manville won this year's National Board of Review prize for Best Actress and they have not missed since 1990.
Over at Best Actor, the comedic side of things as we mentioned is rarely rewarded by Oscar. Paul Giamatti ('Barney's Version') might have the best chance of playing spoiler in this year's race, but it is a 12% chance at best. Sorry to Jake Gyllenhaal ('Love and Other Drugs'), Kevin Spacey ('Casino Jack' is a comedy?) and Johnny Depp getting his 9th and 10th Globe nominations for 'Alice In Wonderland' and 'The Tourist' (9 of them for Comedy.)
So we look at the Dramatic side and see our most likely Oscar locks in Colin Firth ('The King's Speech'), Jesse Eisenberg ('The Social Network') and James Franco ('127 Hours'). Mark Wahlberg has been watching from the sidelines while co-stars Christian Bale, Amy Adams and Melissa Leo have been lapping up accolades for 'The Fighter' so this is a slight boost to his Oscar chances. But he is still facing growing support for fellow Globe nominee, Ryan Gosling ('Blue Valentine') and Globe snubs, Jeff Bridges ('True Grit'), Robert Duvall ('Get Low') and Javier Bardem ('Biutiful'). This race is shaping up to be tougher than we imagined and there is a good chance that this will be the fifth straight year that the five Best Actor nominees were not fellow Globe nominees.
The Globes only have to hit five of its Screenplay nominees as the Oscar expands to Original and Adapted categories. They have only missed eight for an 84% success rate the last ten years and those numbers should expand for next year as 'Inception', 'The Kids Are All Right', and 'The King's Speech' are all favorites for Original. 'The Social Network' is the likely frontrunner to win Adapted and '127 Hours' has a very good shot for a nod there as well, provided it can fight off the likes of 'Toy Story 3', 'True Grit', 'Winter's Bone', 'The Town', and possibly 'Rabbit Hole'.
Best Supporting Actor
The Supporting categories are not entirely sturdy either. Actress is currently hitting 76% (39-of-51) matching Globes-to-Oscar since 2000, but Actor is only 69% (36-of-52) in that time. Christian Bale ('The Fighter'), Geoffrey Rush ('The King's Speech') and Andrew Garfield ('The Social Network') are looking good at the moment. Jeremy Renner ('The Town') is starting to build a little momentum thanks to this apology by the HFPA for snubbing him for 'The Hurt Locker' last year, a role he was eventually nominated for when it came to the Oscars. This is the first notch for Michael Douglas ('Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps') though the Globes numbers could be pushing back, especially if the Oscars want to make any room for Mark Ruffalo ('The Kids Are All Right'), Sam Rockwell ('Conviction') or John Hawkes ('Winter's Bone').
Best Supporting Actress
Supporting Actress could have four of the eventual nominees in Amy Adams ('The Fighter'), Helena Bonham Carter ('The King's Speech), Melissa Leo ('The Fighter') and Jacki Weaver ('Animal Kingdom'). The wildcard here is Mila Kunis ('Black Swan') whom for some reason is being favored over Barbara Hershey by both the Globes and the BFCA members, possibly hoping she can be THEIR understudy. Wink! The Globes have not matched Oscar's list of five since 2001. And it took them six nominees BFCA-style to do it. (Cameron Diaz for 'Vanilla Sky' was the odd lady out.) Kunis could be that lady this year and replaced with even a younger lady in Hailee Steinfeld for 'True Grit'.
Darren Aronofsky ('Black Swan'), David Fincher ('The Social Network'), Tom Hooper ('The King's Speech'), Christopher Nolan ('Inception') and David O. Russell ('The Fighter'). Those are your Director nominees. Oscar could nominate three of them. Maybe four. That is what the 66% (35-of-53) Globe numbers suggest. Fincher, Nolan and Aronofsky likely lead that list with Hooper looking OK at the moment too. History has been dictating that somebody is being left off though. Right now it could be Mr. O. Russell, who still would have to face off Danny Boyle ('127 Hours') and the Coen brothers ('True Grit') as challengers to make these Golden Globe Five match up with Oscar's Five for the first time since 1980.
Finally, we come to Best Picture. The Globes have ten nominees. The Oscars now have ten nominees. Just not separated. Best is best, no matter the genre says the Academy. Stats have become irrelevant with the expansion of Best Picture. All five Dramatic nominees got in last year and it would be a shock if 'Black Swan', 'The Fighter', 'Inception', 'The King's Speech' and 'The Social Network' were snubbed next month. Even with the expansion, none of the Comedy nominees had a date with Oscar in 2009. 'The Kids Are All Right' poses the best chance amongst 'Alice In Wonderland', 'Burlesque', 'Red', and 'The Tourist' of hitting the final list of ten. Maybe if actually really good comedies like 'The Other Guys', 'Get Him To The Greek', 'How Do You Know' or 'Four Lions' had been nominated by the Hollywood Foreign Press, we might feel a little worse when the Academy eventually snubbed them.