All of the guilds are fairly good predictors of the Oscars (the guilds' memberships overlap quite a bit with the Academy voters), but none more so than the DGA. In the guild's 61 years of prize-giving, all but six recipients have gone on to win their respective Oscars. So if I were a betting man, I'd put money on Boyle's name being announced on Oscar night.
But with Slumdog now having won the PGA award and the DGA award, surely you are asking yourself: How often has the same film won both awards? And does that mean it's bound to win the Oscar for Best Picture, too?
The short answer is yes. In the 19 years that the PGA has given out awards, it has matched the DGA award 13 times. And of those 13 double-winners, 10 have gone on to win Best Picture at the Oscars. (The three exceptions were Apollo 13, Saving Private Ryan, and Brokeback Mountain.) Ergo, if I'm a betting man, I'm looking at Slumdog.
In other DGA award news, Ari Folman won the documentary prize for Waltz with Bashir, which is nominated for an Oscar, too ... but in the foreign-language category, not documentary. So you're on your own for predicting that one.