I haven't really done any comprehensive Oscar predicting this year. There's a glut of prognosticators, and I'm not any good at it anyway. But I figure I should go out on one limb the day before nominations are announced -- how else can I look foolish on the 22nd? -- and here it is: I predict that Wall-E slips into the Best Picture final five and leaves The Dark Knight in the cold.

Now, I'll admit that I'm doing this partially to annoy Josh "Snub It And There Will Be Consequences" Tyler (because seriously, that was insane). But here's the thing: if you accept the conventional wisdom that four of the five Best Picture slots will be occupied by Slumdog Millionaire, Frost/Nixon, Milk and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, that leaves Dark Knight and Wall-E (and possibly Doubt) fighting for #5. Since we're talking about Academy voters here, I think the smart money is on the beloved, endlessly charming Pixar flick over the pitch-black superhero epic. It's less divisive and more accessible. (I'll agree that it's not quite as awesome.) The Bat will content itself with tech noms and Heath Ledger.

So that's my last-minute sucker's bet. You got any? Aronofsky for Best Director? Dev Patel for Best Actor? Last chance, kids.